Job Search Tips: How to Find Out if Hiring Managers Are Checking You Out

Job Search Tips: How to Find Out if Hiring Managers Are Checking You Out

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How You Can Plan for and Capitalize on the Recovery

How You Can Plan for and Capitalize on the Recovery
See details at http://bizmore.com/portal/message/4224
Ideas from a group of business experts:

If the recession is indeed "very likely over," as Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke suggested recently, what then should executives and managers be focusing on and thinking about right now -- to put their businesses in the best possible position to capitalize when the economy picks up steam again? Conversely, what would they be wise not to be thinking about and focusing on any longer?

That is the trillion-dollar question many of us are asking now. While most agree that the recession is indeed over, managing the recovery may require skillful maneuvering. Here are some tips to help small- and medium-sized business managers not only survive but thrive during this transitionary period.

Reach out to your customers. Many are still shell-shocked and, as such, are fearful of spending. Let them know that your products/services are better than before and that they will need them now more than ever. Most important, ease them back into purchases. Offer to let them try out one new item before selling them the entire catalog.

Continue to manage your spending. Many of us have been in lockdown mode this past year when it comes to expenses. While it still makes sense to be mindful of the company budget, it may be time to ease up on the purse strings a bit. In a thriving economy, you need to spend money to make money. While we are not quite there yet, it might be time to test the waters by spending on some company needs (vs. company wants).

Businesses are starting to get busier and before too long, we will find ourselves out the recession. There are many employees out there that have been waiting patiently for new jobs and opportunities to become more widely available. Managers have enjoyed record setting retention levels over the last 18 months and some have mistakenly taken this for granted.

First, reflect back to what you learned during the recession so that those lessons are embedded in going forward. We have seen companies learn “organization" lessons in three areas.

Culture: we learned how to be bold, fast, and decisive. Keep that culture going.
Communication: we learned how to be more transparent, open, and candid. Keep the communication lines open with all employees.
Customer: we learned how to serve and target key customers. Keep personalizing the customer experience.

A crisis is a terrible thing to waste, do not waste it by making sure that what you learned gets embedded.

Second, plan on going forward to fully differentiate yourself. Make your culture an outside/in activity. Begin your culture change with your customer expectations and your firm brand. Know what it is you want to be known for by your best customers and translate that expectation into leadership and management actions.

Then, be very attentive to talent. Make sure that your employees are not only able and willing to do the work, but find meaning in the work. One of the great risks coming out of recession is that the gratitude attitude among employees will create a false positive. Employee retention and survey scores may be artificially high because employees are grateful to have a job. But, memories are longer then recessions and if you treated employees badly durin ghte recession, they may leave coming out. Work to help employees find meaning in the work that they do so hat they will be not only competent and committed, but contributing fully.


Seek out new opportunities. Some of the best businesses have been created during the worst times. Take advantage of the emerging new economy to see what more your company can offer. Consumers and businesses will have changed in the aftermath of the recession and change often leads to opportunity.

Reward loyalty. Your employees have stood by you and your company during the recession and many have endured setbacks including lost wages and benefits. Show them you appreciate their sacrifice. While it’s probably too soon to dish out Wall Street-type bonuses, a gift card or luncheon can go a long way.

Learn to hedge. Many of us lost sight of this in the years preceding the recession. We overborrowed and overspent. While the recession may be over, it can easily reemerge. Don’t repeat the mistakes of the past. Make sure your company maintains sufficient liquid reserves such that no matter what happens, now or in the future, it will survive.
Clearly recessions are macro events with micro implications. Bernanke’s assertion that the recession is very likely over should be considered as one input into your own determination of the micro conditions for your particular business. Ask yourselves these questions:
• 1. Are your customers in greater need of your products today than they were six months ago?
• 2. Do you anticipate that your customers will have more economic resources - cash or other - to invest in your business?
• 3. Is your market smaller, the same or larger? How have changing conditions changed the profile of your customer base?
• 4. How have your competitors fared in this downturn? Have they dropped offerings you could deliver
• 5. With this reset in mind, what is the expectation of your customer base? Lower investment upfront? Smaller purchases? Or, is there pent-up demand that will rise when conditions improve?
Then do some scenario planning:
How are you prepared to handle an increase in sales volume? Do you have access to the inputs? At what cost? Have delivery times changed?
• 1. Labor: Can you scale up without making long-term commitments? Can you use part-timers, consultants or lesser-priced employees?
• 2. If you business requires training, do you have the right training system in place? Quiet times are a good time to invest in streamlining systems and training.
• 3. In the event of a prolonged downturn or flat cycle, are there opportunities to consolidate the market – acquire a competitor and reduce costs?
Recoveries can be rocky but with a plan to address the uncertainties, you’ll be ahead of the game regardless of where things go.
The key to business success is relationships – relationships with your employees so they will do good work and provide ideas, relationships with your customers so they will be loyal and tell you how to get better. Therefore, the best thing to do as the recovery takes hold is to do whatever necessary to repair important relationships that were harmed by actions you may have taken during the economic crisis that you thought were necessary to survive.
One way to repair relationships is to apologize. Research in consumer behavior shows that when businesses admit mistakes and problems, apologize, and provide some credible indication of what steps they have taken so the problem doesn’t recur, customers are quite forgiving. Employees, too, understand the economic stress companies have faced. They also can by won back by heartfelt expressions of sympathy and concern and concrete actions to show that the relationship matters. Figure out who matters, and be sure they are still with you – customers, suppliers, creditors, employees – and, if not, win them back.
Businesses are starting to get busier and before too long, we will find ourselves out the recession. There are many employees out there that have been waiting patiently for new jobs and opportunities to become more widely available. Managers have enjoyed record setting retention levels over the last 18 months and some have mistakenly taken this for granted.
It will be very important for managers in companies of all sizes and industries to consider who on their teams are likely to stay as things improve, and who may not. These types of assessments or “Talent Reviews” are an essential part of a strong overall Talent Management Strategy, and should be implemented in one form or another in good times or bad. They can actually be pretty simple as long as they cover some key points:
• Assess everyone in your team.
• Determine their likeliness to stay (usually relying on informal data).
• Revisit their training and development plan.
• Identify their goals for advancement.
• Calibrate their goals with the needs of the business
I am concerned that managers are not paying enough attention to this and that more teams will unravel because of turnover than need be in the coming months. The managers that focus some attention and effort back to individuals within the workgroup and to the team itself, will always outperform peers, but as the job market opens up, that gap will only widen."

Marketing Strategies that Drive Sales

By Doug McQueen
Advertising cutbacks are a reality today, but that doesn’t necessarily have to mean a decline in new leads or business. For companies that have a lead generation slump due to spending cutbacks and the poor economy, there’s hope--guerrilla marketing.

Guerrilla marketing is a term for strategies that generate new business at a fraction of the cost of traditional marketing. Most of these strategies leverage resources for little or no money. A clever marketing department can use it to generate more leads on a small budget.

Here are 10 guerrilla marketing strategies to drive your sales:

1. Generate exposure with borrowed interest: When you “borrow interest,” you attach your message to a high interest event, person or product and ride the tide of traffic for free. Here are three ways to borrow interest:
• Release a YouTube video tied to a recent event. In the first week after Michael Jackson’s death, over 35 million people watched a YouTube video of prisoners dancing a tribute to him. While this video didn’t advertise a product, your video can.
• Bump up your Google’s Adwords placement with “borrowed” copy. Many companies use Adwords to increase traffic to their site, but don’t know that Google doesn’t always place the highest bidder’s ads at the top. Often it rewards high click-thru ads by pushing them up the list, at no extra charge. One technique to get pushed-up is to borrow and repurpose the copy from successful ads. The interest borrowed here is from both Google and the community of searchers.
• Leverage a local event. The concept of borrowed interest can be applied almost anywhere. In July 2009, 125,000 prepaid, high-interest visitors attended the Comic Con convention in San Diego. Costumed characters such as Batman roam the venues and outlying areas passing out flyers. Are there local events that you could be visiting?
2. Monthly press releases: Companies advertise to create top-of-mind awareness so that when a person is ready to buy, they think of you first. Press releases do the same thing, but for free. Newsworthy releases typically cover the following: new hires, product releases, new alliances, large contracts awarded, new territories covered, favorable independent lab results, or a summary of and link to a white paper or article on your website. Your release should follow a professional press release format and should be written in news-based style and not as an advertisement. You can use a news release service or build your own list of editors to distribute your release.

3. Publish articles: Publishing articles does three things for you: it generates long impression times, improved perception of expertise and leads. Your name, phone number and email should appear at the end of each article so readers can contact you with questions. It’s often cost effective to have reprints of articles mailed to your prospects or to be used as a sales tool. Also, email your prospects recent articles to accelerate selling cycles with higher credibility.

When applicable, submit your articles with incredible photographs. They have a higher likelihood of getting published with great photos.
4. Vehicular welcome wagons: Can your company vehicles generate demand for your business? Think about ways you can roll out the welcome mat for fellow commuters and pedestrians. Here’s a catchy “welcome mat” for a taxidermist that works quite well to generate conversation and business:


The taxidermist’s own creation, a stuffed, mounted coyote, hangs on the back of the owner’s company truck as a business advertisement.
5. Join free directories: You can find 10-20 free online business directories in less than an hour and get yourself listed. Google “free business directories” to get started, then try to narrow the search down to directories in your industry.
6. Become newsworthy: Create a newsworthy story and send it to your local TV stations, radio stations, newspapers and industry editors. Stories tied to community pride often get picked up by the media. For example, a bank president once offered CDs that would provide interest rates equal to the ending point spread of the Super Bowl (for the first three months) if the home-town team won the game. The local news coverage was all over it. The bank enjoyed three exciting weeks of coverage leading into the game. New account activity exploded and it did so with customer pride.
7. Establish customer advisory boards: Companies with a customer advisory board enjoy improved loyalty, referrals, leads, strategic direction, ideas for business and an inside track to earning a higher share of their total purchases.

To create a customer advisory board, hold quarterly luncheons in exchange for feedback. Use a third party to chair the board so that you can focus on listening and learning in the course of the event.

These boards give employees a strong dose of customer insight. If every employee from production to accounting is effectively on the sales team, these forums help make the whole company better at selling and servicing.
8. Guerrilla e-marketing System: The key to e-marketing is to integrate all the ways you touch prospects (your website, newsletter, emails, banner ads and articles) so that they act in concert with each other; displaying one theme, one brand identity and one message. Building a website, newsletter, and auto-respond email system is not expensive, but make sure your message is rich, yet simple. Nothing kills time and selling cycles like confusion.
Also, create a video for your business website. People don’t want to read websites, they want to view them. Hire a production team or shoot the video yourself and edit it on the software that comes with a Mac. Once the video is complete, host it on Youtube and place it on your site.
9. Use expert endorsements: Validate your product with an expert’s stamp of approval. A famous chewing gum uses “4 out of 5 dentists agree.” What can you use? When companies stamp it, seal it, shine it up and promote it, it sells faster and at a higher price point.

Here are some possibilities for endorsements: industry certifications, recognized figures, labs, certifying bodies and experts with initials following their names such as BBB, Phd, MD, DDS, MS, CPA, RN. There are two ways to grow a business: Improve the price or improve the volume. Endorsements do both.
10. Referrals: Referrals are the easiest form of growth, the fastest form of acquisition and the lowest cost marketing technique. Most people know this and yet they don’t ask for them. Companies that hold staff accountable for referrals beat their competition each time a referral is granted. In those moments market share begins to migrate and relationships are solidified.

Here’s a sample referral dialogue:
a. A customer says thank you after a business delivers a service.
b. Rep says, “I appreciate that very much.” (pause) “Excuse me, would you happen to know of anyone else who might benefit from my company?”
c. Client says, “Ummm, yes. I might know a few people.”
d. “I get almost all of my business from referrals. Could you help me please?”
e. “Sure, I think John Doe and Mary Smith could use you.”
f. “Would it be possible for you to call them to recommend me? I don’t want my first call to be an interruption.”
g. “Sure.”
h. “Thanks so much. If they say yes, could you forward me their number so I could call them right away?”
i. “Absolutely.”
Referrals not only add to a company’s prospect list they also solidify loyalty between the referring client and the business. Once that call is made, it locks in a memory of preference and a set of beliefs that you will continue to perform.
Your guerrilla marketing plan should include elements that you know will work for you. The sooner you take action, the sooner you begin to create positive results. By the way, if you found this article helpful, would forward it to a friend?
Doug McQueen shares his time lecturing CEO’s and business owners. He is a writer, lecturer and successful business owner/operator living in Encinitas, CA Doug runs Your Results Marketing Co., a full service marketing company that helps businesses sell more efficiently with proven neuro-science languages and their positive effect on decision making and memory.

Tech Management - Communicating Change

In times of change -- which these days means pretty much always -- the leader's role calls for imparting clear, informative communications. Unfortunately, say experts Ron Arden and Paul Batz, not all CEOs come equipped with built-in communications skills. Some know what to say and how to say it purely by instinct; most have to learn. Others resist counseling and assistance, thinking it's enough for them alone to know what's happening in the company. They generally leave the communication side of things to other people.
"This attitude can be a major disadvantage these days," Arden says. "For all organizations, it's become an absolute necessity for the leader to communicate effectively with anyone who has a stake in their company, whether they be staff, shareholders, clients, the board or potential investors. When things are changing, staff needs information and motivation to keep up, to know what's going on, to meet changing objectives, to make decisions that will ultimately affect the bottom line and the well-being of the organization."
"A chief executive needs to make change personal because it's personal to the people who are being asked to change," Batz notes. He cites the example of one CEO's efforts to alter an organizational culture from production to performance.
"Until this time, employees had focused primarily on their specific duties, with little regard for the big picture. Now, just because the CEO was talking 'performance,' they didn't really get the need to set new goals beyond their usual boundaries."
True change occurred only after this CEO explained that he'd be leaving in a few years and wanted to make sure that the business endured. Once he provided a context for change, employees were much more inclined to listen.
Context is crucial, say the Vistage communications experts. Regardless of the project or initiative, it's vital to address the broader elements needed to achieve success, including:
• What are the reasons behind our proposed change?
• What are our goals?
• Who does the change affect?
• What are the likely repercussions of change throughout the organization?
• How will we all benefit from change?
At the same time, the leader has to convey his or her own stake in the change initiative. This includes making such statements as:
• "I'm personally committed to seeing this project through to completion."
• "I understand that these proposed changes may have a negative impact on people."
• "I welcome an open discussion about how you feel regarding this change project."
• "I hope you'll feel free to share your ideas and suggestions about how to make it work."
"Change is always based on market forces and customer realities," Batz says. "So when employees are asked to change their personal and group behaviors to accommodate these realities, the message has to provide enough information to make the change tangible at all levels in the company."
Arden adds: "Remember, it's not just the message of change you're trying to get across. You also need to let people see how you feel about change -- your optimism and the strength of your convictions about the path the organization has embarked upon. Employees listen to what you say but they watch you, too. They draw their own conclusions based on what they observe."
Even when change is affecting the company adversely, to get employees to face the situation along with you calls for the right kind of communication.
"It's a fact that, generally, the CEO's priorities are very different from their employees," Arden notes. "The average employee cares less about the company's bottom line and more about their own bottom line -- primarily, job security. The dominant motivator for them is to tune into their favorite radio station, WIIFM (What's In It For Me)."
People dragged into change do so kicking and screaming. Why? Change equals uncertainty. "The trick is not to hide this fact but to acknowledge its scariness and point out the potential rewards if people come along with you. Obstacles, mid-course adjustments, uncertainty -- all of these are part of any significant change effort."
For this reason, Arden adds, being honest and caring is the best approach. "If you as the leader acknowledge all of this, you're doing no more than telling the truth. Make it clear to employees that this is a normal part of all change. The message, 'Hold on, it's going to be a bumpy but exciting ride,' will alleviate some of the pressure and ease the tensions of uncertainty."
The goal is always reducing ambiguity and uncertainty. "Think of communication as a pre-emptive strike against rumor and gossip," Batz says. "By sharing truthful information -- in a complete and timely manner -- you diminish the hurtful effects of the grapevine." And make no mistake about it: your company has a grapevine. Every company does.

What Would Google Do>

What Would Google Do - A phenominal book that shows the reader what Google has done to change the way business in conducted; openness, politics, news, information flow, invention and collaboration are all the basis of Google. THis book shows us how to enhance our business, innovate, advance our careers and improve our lifestyles and creatively change the way be live...A MUST read for every business person, inventor, engineer, operations and sales person.

The Art of Finding New Customers

The best way to make sure your company flourishes and grows is to consistently find new customers. New customers often result in quickly realized revenue with a low acquisition cost and high margins. Here are five proven techniques for finding new customers.
1. Existing customers: How many additional divisions, sister organizations, other plants does your current customer have that you’re not doing business with? They know you, they trust you, you already are approved as a supplier – why not get all the business instead of the small amount you currently have? Also, who do they know that they could refer you to – either inside their company or in their business or social circle?

2. Past customers: Go back to past customers to see if their needs or people have changed. Also, try selling to the company’s additional divisions, sister organizations, and other plants. As you speak with people, ask who they know that they could refer you to, either inside their company or in their business or social circle?

3. Vertical markets: Much of what you do and who you work with is transferrable to other potential clients in similar sectors. For example, if you work with electrical contractors, you may want to look at plumbing, landscape, and roofing contractors. They are in the vertical market of construction contractors.

4. Trade groups and associations: If you are already part of a trade organization, consider reaching out to fellow members. They might make good clients or referral sources. Work together with other members to get business that will benefit both of you. Also, don’t overlook the organization itself–they may need or have use for what you do now more than ever!

5. Non-profits and civic groups: Many non-profits are hurting for revenue but they still have business needs. While you may not be able to charge full price, you might be able to secure work with a non-profit and then use publicity to leverage that work into name recognition or other jobs. Recently, a Tennessee non-profit needed a new office. A local builder took the job and while he didn’t make much money, it enabled him to keep his crews working and cash flowing. The builder got good publicity in the news media for the job. From this, the builder picked up two jobs which more than paid for the short profits on the non-profit job.
While there is no magic solution for gaining new customers, some hard work put into these five areas will keep you growing and moving forward.

-Tim Shaver is owner of Tim Shaver and Associates – a business consulting, coaching and training company. Tim Shaver and Associates is an authorized franchisee of Sandler Training. Tim can be reached at 615-399-8700 or tim@nashvillesalestraining.com

Twine Uses Artificial Intelligence to find and store web info

In an article printed in Fast Company this month, a very interesting technology is emerging:

Keeping Your Balance in Turbulent Times

A friend recently confided in me saying, “This down market has me scared. I can’t sleep at night. I don’t know if my business will be here three months from now.”
Certainly, some anxiety about this economic crisis is normal and expected. Some people, however, have become emotionally hijacked, gripped with a fear of spiraling downward.
Living chronically in a state of fear can over-tax our system and set the stage for many health problems. Here are some signs that you’re living in chronic fear:
• Looking for ways to flee your situation
• Unusual amount of anger
• Emotionally frozen
• Feelings of imminent or approaching doom
• Loss of optimism
• Anxiety in response to real or imagined events
• Self-preoccupation or withdrawing from relationships
• Selling off investments and taking huge losses, when selling is not a necessity
It is possible to change how you cope with distressing events. You can experience stress and fear without getting consumed by it.
Counteracting fear and stress
Below are five tips to maintain emotional balance in times of fear and stress.
Maintain perspective. Balance out the negative with something positive. Opportunities exist everywhere for people who maintain perspective. Don’t deny the reality of the situation but try to see the positive aspects and opportunities in the change taking place.
Practice self-care. Different stress-management techniques work for different people. Pick and choose from the following and see what works best for you: prayer, mediation, exercise, gardening, yoga, poetry, pleasure reading, to name a few. Whatever you choose, find a way to make it a part of your daily practice.
Know thyself. Much of the fear prevalent during a recession is based around our financial situation. Get to know your relationship with money. Often it comes from childhood experiences that created an emotional connection with money. Did your parents ever tell stories or say things like: “Don’t be a financial failure like your uncle” or “Happy and successful people are wealthy”? These influences operate mostly out of our awareness and, if left unchecked, make us especially vulnerable in times of economic crisis. Take time to understand your money story. Consider working with a coach on this project.
Develop appreciation. We are all more than the sum of our material possessions. All the literature on happiness boils down to one thing: happiness is a measure of appreciation that goes beyond the financial. Develop and practice your appreciation for all things non-financial.
Turn to others. Lean on others for advice, feedback and support. Your colleagues at offer a tremendous resource. Don’t ignore their words. Spouses, friends, other family members and even consultation with a licensed therapist can offer the glue you might need to hold yourself together.
We live in tough times. Now is the time to find and practice skills that can help us stay balanced. These skills can act as our hedge against fear. -
Dr. Eric Weiner is a speaker and consultant who helps families and organizations with the psychological and relationship issues associated with wealth, leadership and values-based legacy planning. For more information see www.familylegacyadvisor.com.

Nine Strategies of Highly Productive Workers

People with talent fail at an alarming rate within organizations. According to Robert Kelley and Janet Caplan, researchers who studied workers at Bell Labs, most talented hires wind up as average or below-average performers. Among the people at Bell Labs and those of competitors, Kelley and Caplan found that 85 to 90 percent of the extremely talented people hired never rose beyond average, when it came to productivity. They also found that the 10 to 15 percent of hires who rose to “star performance” status were eight times more productive than the average or mediocre performers.
Let’s say you’re responsible for the results of an organization employing 100 people. If your organization is average, seven of those people are star performers, eighty-three are average, and ten are slackers. Let’s say you encounter an economic climate that prohibits you from hiring and compels you to find a means of doing better with what you have. What would be your strategy?
According to our experience, there are, very likely, other star performers hibernating among your workforce. If you could convert just one mediocre performer into a star performer, the value of that conversion, according to the Bell Labs study, would be equivalent to adding seven average performers to your workforce at no additional cost to the organization.
Defining star performance
You can create star performers by taking two actions: 1.) Define star performance (to expect star performance you first need to define it) and 2.) Identify the work strategies consistent among star performers and absent among mediocre workers.
Organizations that have not defined superior performance, tend to experience lackluster growth. Companies that want to outpace the competition should commit to defining star performance, not just for one job but for all the key positions in your company.
Companies that have defined performance tend to use performance-based job descriptions that define not just the tasks essential to the job, but also the minimum expected and exceptional outcomes in the job. A star performer in a job would be a person who consistently achieves breakthrough outcomes.
The nine strategies of highly productive workers
The key to converting average or mediocre people to star status lies in determining and then coaching their competencies in nine areas. The Bell Labs study identified those nine areas as the strategies that workers use to get their work done. Here are the nine strategies of highly productive workers:
• Taking initiative – Star performers go beyond just informing someone of an error, they correct it. The mediocre don’t.
• Networking- Star performers establish their anticipated needs for outside input prior to beginning a project. The mediocre wait until there’s a need, and then they look for help.
• Self-management- Stars know that self-management goes beyond time management and includes management of effort and knowledge. The mediocre feel that time management is all that’s needed.
• Teamwork effectiveness- Star performers are comfortable with being either a follower or a leader. The mediocre tend to push too hard for leadership roles.
• Leadership – Star performers know that small leadership roles are as important as the bigger, more visible ones. The mediocre are often disappointed with smaller, less viable leadership assignments and, as a result, perform at a level expressing their displeasure.
• Followership – Star performers are aware of the value of following as well as leading and understand the need to contribute to the leader’s and the team’s performance. The mediocre are often difficult to work within a team setting and focus more on getting credit for themselves.
• Perspective – Superior performers are able to see how their immediate work factors into the “big picture.” The star performer is invested in taking on other view points, like those of the customer, manager or other team members. Mediocre workers often seem to have a world defined by the length of their reach. They tend to have difficulty in accepting thoughts and ideas from those other than themselves.
• Show-and-Tell – Star performers are master presenters. The mediocre are PowerPoint specialists.
• Organizational savvy – Star performers understand how they contribute to the overall performance of the organization and are capable of navigating through the competing interests of an organization. The mediocre are often perplexed with organization politics and hide behind the mantra of not being a “political person.”
Understanding theses strategies and then defining them for your workforce is a powerful tool among the steps necessary to convert mediocre workers to star performers.
In these difficult times, adding the equivalent of seven average performers to you workforce by converting just one to star status is a strategy that addresses the pressing need to do more with less.
Stephen Blakesley is Managing Partner of GMS Talent L P, and author of the book Strategic Hiring – Tomorrow’s Benefits Today..

Plan Now to Expand - How executives can make the right business decisions based on a clear view of the future.

Economist Alan Beaulieu Projects 2010 Recovery
Here’s the tough news: the next six months (March-August) will be worse than the previous six months. And the good news, we should see the economic recovery begin around March 2010 based on the monthly trend in the U.S. Industrial Production Index.
This projection, was made by economist Alan Beaulieu of the Institute for Trend Research. The information Beaulieu conveyed was geared to help executives make the right business decisions based on a clear view of the future.
Many Main Street business owners will be oblivious to the recovery as it’s happening, says Beaulieu, and won’t recognize the recovery until three to six months after it has begun. Vistage members, armed with a reliable economic forecast and actionable advice, will be able to pull ahead of those businesses that recognize the recovery too late.
Following are highlights from Beaulieu’s three-hour presentation.
Economic Projections
Based on the movement of leading economic indicators:
• The recovery will begin around March 2010, and will be so mild that most Main Street businesses won’t trust that it’s a true recovery until we are three to six months into it.
• U.S. housing markets will reach a low in late 2009 or early 2010 when prices flatten out before rising again in 2011.
• Disinflation (a decrease in the rate of inflation) or deflation is likely to continue into 2010, while inflation returns in 2011-2012.
• Unemployment will peak in early 2010 above 9 percent nationally. Job growth should begin around September 2010.
• Credit conditions will improve somewhat in 2010, when we should see renewed lending at low interest rates.
• The value of the dollar against other currencies won’t change much from now through the end of the year.
Advice to Business Owners
Beaulieu recommends that business owners take the following action:
• The middle of 2010 will be a golden time to expand your operation. New and used equipment will be inexpensive, real estate will be inexpensive, interest rates will be low. Start planning your expansion now.
• Borrow as much money as you can in 2010, as conditions may not be as favorable in the years to follow.
• If you lease business space, renegotiate your contract as vacancy rates goes up later this year.
• Hire some of the exceptional talent that will be available through 2010.
• Stop activities that don’t create profit, such as a seminars, services or other things that lose money for your company.
• Eliminate products that aren’t profitable. Get rid of that which doesn’t serve your company.
• Find clients in these resilient sectors: energy, “green,” hotel/motel, water, healthcare, funeral services, alcohol, security, legal services, food distribution, water purification/distribution, electricity, natural gas distribution, education (community colleges in particular), pet products, and leisure.
• Look for clients or ways to sell your product in western Canada, Brazil, and Australia. These countries are positioned for strong future growth. Russia and China are not positioned for near-term growth.
• Review your competitive advantage. Define it and tout it.
• Lead with optimism. Be the chief cheerleader.
• Communicate your company’s future clearly.
• Exercise your courage, don’t just maintain the status quo. Take risks and be courageous.
• Celebrate victories, even small ones, with your people. Treat your best employees well or they will defect during the recovery.
• Monitor your cash position religiously and take all necessary actions to maintain a positive cash flow.
• Learn to compute your company’s “12/12 rate of change” so you can project where your revenues are going
Market Advice
There’s no huge stock market rebound on the other side of this downturn, only a long, slow climb out.
• People in their 20s and 30s should continue to put money in the market as it will have an eventual payoff.
• People within 10 years of retirement should go for safe fixed asset investments.
• Rather than buying broad-based mutual and index funds, focus on specific sectors such as alternative energy and healthcare, or companies you’re willing to invest in for the long term.
• In the post-2010 world, avoid bond funds as they will be under long-term negative pressure.
Housing Market
There is more negative housing activity to come, says Beaulieu.
• Housing prices will continue to decline, reaching a bottom around March 2010.
• Even though housing prices have a little more to fall, now through the end of 2009 is a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity to buy a house. Rarely do low interest rates align with low prices and the promise of a modest recovery two years off. There will not be a better time to buy real estate in our lives. Look for areas with strong demographics suited to an aging population.
• Home prices will begin to rise slightly in late 2010.
Foreign Markets
• Canada, Australia, and Brazil are best positioned for growth for years to come.
• China is no longer the low-cost manufacturer that it has been for the past decade. Factories are shutting down or moving to nearby countries with lower labor costs. Look for increased civil unrest and a long recession in China.
As a final thought Beaulieu reminds us: “It took only two years to crumble to where we are today, but it will take us many more years to get back to that peak. It was a bubble and you don’t recreate a bubble quickly, nor do we want to.”